🏆 Title race — Premier League

🏆

ARS

Arsenal FC

Projected Premier League champion · 2026 season

103 pts · 33W 4D 1L · GD 58

Title, Top-4 & Relegation chances (20 teams simulated)

ARS 1. Arsenal FC

56.1% T4 100.0% · REL 0.0%

MAC 2. Manchester City FC

39.7% T4 99.6% · REL 0.0%

LIV 3. Liverpool FC

4.0% T4 89.2% · REL 0.0%

HUC 4. Hull City AFC

0.1% T4 41.7% · REL 0.0%

CHE 5. Chelsea FC

0.1% T4 22.9% · REL 0.1%

NEU 6. Newcastle United FC

0.0% T4 17.8% · REL 0.1%

BR& 7. Brighton & Hove Albion FC

0.0% T4 8.9% · REL 0.5%

ASV 8. Aston Villa FC

0.0% T4 5.9% · REL 1.0%

LEU 9. Leeds United FC

0.0% T4 3.9% · REL 1.1%

MAU 10. Manchester United FC

0.0% T4 3.9% · REL 1.8%

BRE 11. Brentford FC

0.0% T4 3.5% · REL 1.4%

AFB 12. AFC Bournemouth

0.0% T4 1.3% · REL 5.0%

EVE 13. Everton FC

0.0% T4 1.1% · REL 1.9%

NOF 14. Nottingham Forest FC

0.0% T4 0.3% · REL 13.3%

CRP 15. Crystal Palace FC

0.0% T4 0.1% · REL 13.1%

FUL 16. Fulham FC

0.0% T4 0.1% · REL 15.9%

SUN 17. Sunderland AFC

0.0% T4 0.1% · REL 19.6%

COC 18. Coventry City FC

0.0% T4 0.0% · REL 100.0%

IPT 19. Ipswich Town FC

0.0% T4 0.0% · REL 96.3%

TOH 20. Tottenham Hotspur FC

0.0% T4 0.0% · REL 28.8%

Projected final table (380/380 fixtures simulated)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	ARS 🏆 Arsenal FC	38	33	4	1	65	7	58	103	W W W W W
2	MAC Manchester City FC	38	28	9	1	78	21	57	93	W W W W W
3	LIV Liverpool FC	38	20	15	3	63	29	34	75	W L W D W
4	CHE Chelsea FC	38	16	13	9	51	39	12	61	L D W D W
5	NEU Newcastle United FC	38	16	12	10	51	42	9	60	L W D W L
6	ASV Aston Villa FC	38	17	9	12	40	36	4	60	L D D L W
7	HUC Hull City AFC	38	15	13	10	25	22	3	58	W L W D W
8	BR& Brighton & Hove Albion FC	38	13	16	9	53	38	15	55	D W D D L
9	LEU Leeds United FC	38	15	9	14	28	30	-2	54	W L L W D
10	AFB AFC Bournemouth	38	13	13	12	34	37	-3	52	L W L D L
11	EVE Everton FC	38	12	13	13	23	24	-1	49	W W L L W
12	MAU Manchester United FC	38	11	15	12	41	40	1	48	W L W D W
13	SUN Sunderland AFC	38	14	5	19	23	38	-15	47	W L W L L
14	BRE Brentford FC	38	11	13	14	38	38	0	46	L D L D L
15	CRP Crystal Palace FC	38	10	14	14	29	41	-12	44	W L D L D
16	FUL Fulham FC	38	10	12	16	28	40	-12	42	L W L W L
17	NOF Nottingham Forest FC	38	9	13	16	23	34	-11	40	D W L W W
18	TOH Tottenham Hotspur FC	38	6	13	19	28	51	-23	31	L D W D L
19	IPT Ipswich Town FC	38	3	1	34	13	68	-55	10	L L L L L
20	COC Coventry City FC	38	1	2	35	1	60	-59	5	L L L L L

How this works: finished matches use real results; every scheduled match uses the most likely scoreline from the Poisson model (same as the dashboard predictions). Tiebreakers: points → goal difference → goals scored. Title chances sample each match 1,000× from its predicted scoreline distribution.